And I think it's a day that we're going
to look back on and say this is when the
market narrative changed
because that's like last year now. Yeah.
I mean last year I mean Jackson tends to
deliver. I mean over the years it's
delivered but I I really to
well we do believe that he's going to be
quite hawkish or he's certainly not
doubbish and that's a material you know
factor that markets haven't got
discounted into them and I think this is
symptomatic of central banks around the
world that we're going to be changing
the discussion now we just look at what
uh pal has in front of him he's got
clearly all the things he warned about
in July coming to fruition. When we look
at the underlying data in inflation in
goods, we're seeing apparel zero
inflation beginning of the year now up
3%. Uh household goods was 2% now up 5%.
Electronic goods was zero now up 2%.
But service is where the problem is
and it's high inflation is high there.
And so what we see is as we go through
to the end of the year PCE at 3% uh
headline at three and a half percent
this is and he's going to have data
looking forward as well. we saw but in
the PMIs we also saw um you know hiring
intentions increasing up to a level
what's mispriced off that scenario if
this is the pivot what's mispriced going
into the new paradigm that we're going
to I the front end of the curve
obviously
the short end the short end is got to
pivot up um and basically risk assets
are incorrectly priced we have really
full value
by how much by a lot or by a little
by a substantial amount of volatility
and I I think this is the key. You know,
we we got a paradigm here that we
actually think that um you know,
economies are actually rather good. Um
and that's going to be the problem that
faces central banks. So that paradox is
that risk assets are going to look at
you know a long-term good scenario i.e.
economies are coming but shortterm we
have to have a rethink about the
direction of interest rates.